Salgsvekst er en utrolig viktig driver for langsiktig avkastning, trolig den viktgste av alle. Tabellen under viser selskapene i S&P som har hatt best avkastning siste 15 år og salgsveksten de har hatt i perioden
Skal ikke kommentere på enkeltselskaper, men tror det er en grei konklusjon er at et fellestrekk er at det er en sterk sammenheng mellom avkastning og salgsvekst.
For å komme til bunns i hvofor dette er så viktig, skal jeg dekomponere hvor avkastning kommer fra.
- Inntjeningsvekst
- Utbytte
- Reprising
Skal skrive mer om utbytte i en artikkel senere, men for nå la oss bare anta at dette er en liten del av totalen. Reprising, dvs endring i multippelen (P/E, EV/EBIT etc.), altså verdsettelsen til selskaper, vil variere avhengig av markedets humør. Men den kan ikke stige uendelig mye på sikt (selv en kan begynne å lure noen ganger). Jeg leste et sted en gang (fant artikkelen her https://bit.ly/2VcdJa7) at S&P hadde hatt 9.6% årlig avkastning siste 100 år, og av dette skyldtes 0.1% reprising. Så da er det inntjningsvekst igjen. Litt enkelt sagt er dette et resultat av salgsvekst og marginendring. God kostnadskontroll er et konkurransefortrinn, og å kutte kostnader kan bidra til inntjeningsvekst. Men marginen kan ikke stige uendelig mye, den kan aldri bli over 100%, og i de fleste tilfeller stoppe lenge før dette. Dermed står vi igjen med salgsvekst som den viktigste langsiktige driveren for avkastning, fordi salgsvekst ikke har noen begrensning. Den kan vokse uendelelig langt. Og her kommer den mye omtalte renter’s rente effekten inn. Grafen under viser hvordan 100 kr vil utivkle seg i 15 år med ulik vekst.
1% årlig vekst vil altså kun øke 100 med 16 til 116 i perioden. 5% vil øke 100 med 108 til 208 mens 10% vil gi 318 i økning til 418. Med andre ord er 10% godt over dobbelt så bra som 5% (318 ift 108 er nesten 3x) Med 20% vekst vil 100 vokse med hele 1441 til 1541. En annen viktig obersvasjon er at jo lengre tid, jo større blir forskjellen. Sagt på en annen måte, i selskaper med god vekst jobber tiden på din side. I FIRST Veritas har selskapene vokst salget med et årlig snitt på 19.5% siden 2006
Selv om vekst er veldig viktig, er det viktig å passe på andre ting også:
- Veksten må ikke være utvannende. Vekst som bidrar til lavere marginer og avkastning på kapitalen er ikke nødvendigvis ønskelig. Eksempelvis slik supplyrederiene gjorde en del år
- Veksten må være lønnsom. Det er ikke vanskelig å vokse innvannende, det er bare å investere nok (f.eks gjennom oppkjøp). Kapital-lett vekst er dermed å foretrekke
I modellen FIRST Veritas følger er vekst viktig, men samtidig må summen av score på tvers av alle parametre være god. Høy vekst er ikke nok alene, kapitalavkastning, cash-conversion og marginstabilitet måler også kvaliteten gjennom regnskapstall tilbake til 2006. I tillegg måles risiko gjennom belåning, verdsettelse og syklisk fase (et motsyklisk element ment for å begrense investeringer i selskaper med super-profit). Oppdaterte porteføljedata under:
«Jeg leste et sted en gang at at S&P hadde hatt 9.6% årlig avkastning siste 100+ år, og av dette skyldtes 0.1% reprising. Så da er det inntjningsvekst igjen.» Stemmer nødvendigvis dette? Ta en enkelt aksje, den leverer ROE på 10 prosent og har p/b på 1. All avkastning betales som utbytte. Uten noen som helst vekst vil jo den levere 10 prosent avkastning hvert eneste år, og gjøre det bedre enn indeksen uten noe reprising eller vekst av noe slag?
Du har helt rett. Om du finner en aksje som i ditt eksempel vil den ha 10% fra utbytte og 0 fra de to andre faktorer. Fant igjen hvor jeg hadde lest det jeg skrev, i linken under nederst i dokumentet finner du illustasjonen (4.5% utbytte, 5.0% inntjeningsvekst og 0.1% reprising siste 100 år)
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/sp-500-return-breakdown-earnings-valuations-dividends-2015-2019.html
Det er veldig bra at du kommuniserer med andelseierne og andre interessenter på denne bloggen!
Fra 1. september 19 til 30. november 20 er fondet ditt opp 68% mens FTSE First Nordic 30 indeksen er opp 18%. Differansen er hele + 50%.
Hva tror du den årlige differansen vil bli i snitt over tid?
Hvor stort må fondet bli før det blir vanskelig å slå denne referanseindeksen?
Hei, ikke helt dreven på denne blogginga så ikke sett kommentaren så sorry sent svar..
Takk, det er både viktig, interessant og lærerikt å kommunisere med de som er involvert i fondet.
Hva differansen blir over tid er vanskelig å si. Det vil helt sikkert variere, men jeg håper jo fondet skal gjøre det bedre enn markedet på lang sikt, og jeg forvalter det på måten jeg gjør fordi jeg tror det er bedre enn snittet av alle andre. Så får tiden vise..
Fondet kan nok bli en god del større, men den dagen jeg merker at størrelsen er en hindring, så kommer vi til å stenge fondet, når den dagen kommer vet jeg heller ikke ennå 🙂
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